Projects | Michael Branion-Calles

Spatial Analysis of Social Inequalities in Road Traffic Injury

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This ongoing project maps how social inequalities shape the risk of road traffic injuries across neighborhoods in British Columbia. By combining census data, crash records, and spatial modeling, it highlights patterns of deprivation and injury risk—especially for pedestrians and cyclists—to inform safer and more equitable urban planning.

Impact: Provides evidence of strong socioeconomic gradient across all regions of the province, a first step to creating and evaluating equitable transportation safety policies.

Tech Stack: R (INLA, tidyverse, sf), GIS, Bayesian spatial modeling

Fantasy Hockey ELO

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 +0000

A fun and interactive Shiny app that tracks and visualizes ELO scores over 11 seasons of fantasy hockey for participants in a head-to-head league among friends.

Impact: Makes competitive tracking intuitive and enjoyable for everyone in the league.

Tech Stack: R, Shiny, ELO algorithm, data visualization

Active Transportation Safety and Road Traffic Injury in British Columbia

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 00:00:00 +0000

This report was prepared for decision makers and policy makers in the provincial government to support goals of increasing active transportation while striving for Vision Zero. It uses linked datasets encompassing insurance claims, police reports, hospital admissions, and sociodemographic information to describe changes in road traffic injury rates over time, identify population groups with higher rates, and discern factors that influence injury severity.

Key findings:

Insurance claims miss just over 25% of injuries requiring hospital admission for pedestrians, cyclists, and drivers.
Falls on public roadways (including sidewalks) are an important and increasing source of injuries for pedestrians and cyclists but are not captured by auto-insurance claims or police collision data.
Cyclists and pedestrians face a disproportionately higher risk of injury and death compared to motor vehicle occupants. Reductions over time are primarily from fewer motor-vehicle collisions, while pedestrian falls and single-bicycle crashes are increasing.
Inequalities exist: lower-income individuals and those in less wealthy neighborhoods face higher injury rates; older age is associated with a higher proportion of fall-related traffic injuries.
Speed limits >30 km/hr and heavier vehicles are associated with higher risk of fatal injury for all road users, with a greater effect on pedestrians and cyclists.

Considerations:

Stratify road safety goals by road user type, population groups, and crash types.
Expand the definition of pedestrian injuries to include falls on roadways (including sidewalks).
Manage kinetic energy via speed management and physical separation as part of a Safe Systems approach.
A provincial travel survey is needed to accurately assess pedestrian and cyclist risk.
Improve emergency department data collection on mechanisms of injury (including minor injuries) to enhance surveillance, risk-factor analysis, and severity assessment.

Publications:

Underreporting and selection bias of serious road traffic injuries in auto insurance claims and police reports in British Columbia, Canada. (Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2025).
Comparing pedestrian and cyclist injuries from falls and collisions in British Columbia, Canada: Frequencies and population characteristics. (Journal of Transport & Health, 2025).

Impact of Public Bicycle Share Programs on Bicycling Collisions

Wed, 02 Sep 2020 00:00:00 +0000

This project evaluated how implementing public bicycle share programs (PBSPs) affected the likelihood of bicycling collisions across multiple North American cities. Using a difference-in-differences approach applied to repeated cross-sectional survey data, it shows that crash odds did not increase after PBSP implementation and were notably lower in cities with existing programs, supporting the safety of well-established bike share systems.

Impact: Offers empirical insights to urban planners and policymakers assessing the safety implications of bike share adoption.

Tech Stack: R, quasi-experimental design (difference-in-differences), multi-city survey analysis